This weekend, we’ve got a PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week and I can not wait to chase those huge prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k belongs to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I won my first seat into it last week and will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $50k decoration, then I will probably have a few shots in the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the money game lineup this week in his -800 gaming lineup. I will take that free square and proceed. He should dominate this fight and he can finish it on the feet or the floor. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am totally fine with paying 9.6k for that. When I’m making lineups, I would like to try and have at least 10x from each fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points . That’s the way I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I did not think Jones would get a finish then perhaps he only dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t need that. Nonetheless, this is a potential 5-round fight, and I do expect Jones to control, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get from Jon Jones because he’ll be very highly possessed. If he’s 50% owned by the field and he simply scores 85-90 DK points, then will pretty much kill off half the area since that would not be sufficient points to put him on that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it will be out of his wrestling. He’s one of the best wrestlers in MMA history and now he is finally getting an opportunity from the UFC after controlling every business he’s been in. He will not wish to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to shoot takedowns straight away and string wrestle until he receives them. Once he receives top control there isn’t likely to become a lot Robbie can perform on the floor and he should take a beating as long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points to get a significant strike. A man like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns in 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a great play if he can come up with the success.
Play of the week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of older, but I believe he still has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the feet, the quantity from Sanchez should acquire it for him there so long as he does not get pumped out. The chin of Diego is exactly what I worry about most these days, but Gall isn’t much of a striker and that I really don’t see him becoming knockout. In addition, I don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and I believe Sanchez are the more likely guy to be on top if the fight hits the floor. A submission is Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez hasn’t been submitted. We have to have underdogs within our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego allows us to cover up for all those men like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he can grind a decision win here I think he can get 10x that wages and if we can find a win against him in that inexpensive salary, then I think we will be in line for that $50k win if we hit our additional five spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using each fighter since I am making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the man I need the least of. I try to acquire a favored for you guys as my fade of this week but I don’t think there are any need to fade favorites this week. Instead, I am going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a chance. I believe a fluke KO is the only path to victory for Smith and that he really doesn’t have the 1 punch/kick power that it might take to pull off. I would be amazed if Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I was making 20 or less lineups, he’d be a simple fade.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I am 58-37 for +177.62u (+$17,762) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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